Thursday, 21 February 2013
World Club Challenge 2013
2013 World Club Challenge
Leeds Rhinos vs. Melbourne Storm
Headingley Carnegie Stadium
Friday, February 22nd 2013. 20:00 GMT
It's that time of year again where League fans on the other side of the world huddle around their radios to listen to their Champions, having triumphed through the previous NRL season travel to the old country to take on Leeds.
This year it's the turn of the Melbourne Storm, coming off their “first” Premiership in over 10 years, the Storm come seeking their “second” WCC title.
This game is often referred to as Leeds vs. NRL (this may actually be the first time) as Leeds have featured in 4 of the last 5 renewals of the WCC, splitting those match-ups with Manly and Melbourne.
LEEDS RHINOS
So, Leeds. Well clearly they have the upper hand in this clash as the Super League season has already started, with Leeds picking up wins against Hull FC and Salford and losing to Castleford. They will also have home advantage as the WCC has been held in England every since 1998. The 1997 WCC was a farcical 22 team tournament which put the future of the competition in doubt, while the previous title was held since Wigan's victory at the old ANZ stadium in Brisbane in 1994. Not only do the Rhinos have a home advantage in this tie, they also have the “world's greatest player” in Sir Kevin Sinfield of Oldham. Sinfield has dragged this Leeds team to the majority of their success behind a strong pack and straight running backs that only seem to play organized and successful rugby in February, September and the first Saturday in October. Another thing to consider when looking forward to this clash of titans (but not shoulders) is that the “famous” Headingley pitch was relaid in the winter and in true Yorkshire style, many locals complained about the £1m cost. This is the first new pitch at Headingley since 1963, and despite the obvious need to provide a quality playing surface for our Australian visitors, the Rhinos declined to renovate their crumbling relic of a stadium with the uncovered West terrace and the 80+ year old South Stand getting a reprieve from modernization yet again, much to the delight of the whippet-fancying masses.
Leeds Squad (from):
Watkins, Moon, Hall, McGuire, Burrow, Leuluai, McShane, Peacock, Jones-Buchanan, Ablett, Sinfield (c), Ward, Delaney, Kirke, Clarkson, Achurch, Moore, Keinhorst, Vickery.
The main dangers to Melbourne are Danny McGuire, Ryan Hall and obviously Sir Kev. McGuire will be playing in his 300th game for Leeds and has racked up 224 tries, particularly impressive for a half back. Although he's lost a step of pace since his debut 12 years ago, McGuire is still a threat, especially as he has a knack of popping up on the inside when one of the outside backs makes a break, and more often than not, his tries are walk-ins under the posts. Hall can legitimately be referred to as one of the world's best wingers, and with the exception of Wigan's Sam Tomkins and the world's best Sir Kev, Hall would be the only English player to make it into a World Dream Team. While McGuire may be Super League's all-time leading tryscorer, Hall is catching him at an alarming rate. With 100 tries in 119 appearances, the maths graduate will be a big danger on the wing and may cause problems for Melbourne's Mahe Fonua. Kevin Sinfield is clearly a cut above the rest on this field, and having watched him first hand drag Leeds into the Super League grand final, he then almost single-handedly beat Warrington at Old Trafford to lift his 5th Premiership. Despite being the world's greatest Five-Eighth, Sinfield has also played at hooker, lock, second row, full back, goalkeeper, defenseman, third-base and whatever other position he likes, although not quarterback as Danny McGuire usually plays there. He often referees games and although he may not be afforded that opportunity in this game, that won't stop a man like Sir Kev. Leeds will miss recently converted fullback Zak Hardaker, who sits this one out with a broken thumb.
Leeds will look to bulldoze Melbourne in a way that Canterbury couldn't in the Grand Final and key to that will be 40 year old prop and Great Britain captain Jamie Peacock. I would expect coach Brian McDermott to set his team's stall out to punish the Melbourne pack for five tackles then ask Sir Kev to make Storm fullback Billy Slater chase his kick on the last. Leeds will also try to pin Melbourne into a corner and force the error then spread the ball wide to Hall, Ben Jones-Bishop, Kallum Watkins and homesick Joel Moon to attack the in-experienced Fonua, Justin O'Neill, Will Chambers and elder statesman of the Storm back-line Sisa Waqa. If they can implement this game-plan and limit the effectiveness of the Melbourne spine, they will have a great chance of becoming the most successful side in WCC history.
MELBOURNE STORM
Melbourne came over last week to acclimatize to the British conditions and trained in London for a week before traveling to Leeds via Huddersfield where most of their squad took in the Super League game between the Giants and Brett Finch and Ryan Hoffman's old club Wigan. The Storm are yet to play a competitive match this season and during their trial matches, they have featured mixed squads of young players including the U20s and a sprinkling of experience. This game will be their 4th appearance in the WCC and 3rd in the past 6 years, losing 11-4 to Leeds in 2008 and “winning” the title in 2010 with a 18-10 victory over the Rhinos. Both of those game were played at Elland Road, so for many in the squad, this will be their first taste of Headingley. Interestingly enough, the two players who have featured at Headingley Finch and Hoffman have never lost there, playing out a 22-22 draw in 2011 and Finch's last visit resulted in a 50-8 victory. Good omens for anyone wearing purple tonight. The Storm have a good mixture of youth and experience with the average age of the starting 13 just over 25 with the elder statesman of the side Billy “The Kid” Slater. Despite the youth on display, the starting line-up have accrued 75 international caps as well as 60 Origin appearances and there are two Golden Boot winners; Melbourne, Queensland and Australia captain Cameron Smith and Billy Slater. They also boast England five-eighth of the future in Halifax lad Gareth Widdop who will add to his total of 8 caps whenever the world's greatest player steps aside.
Melbourne Starting Line-up:
Slater, Fonua, O'Neill, Chambers, Waqa, Widdop, Cronk, J Bromwich, Smith (c), Norrie, Harris, Hoffman, Hinchcliffe
Replacements (from): Ryles, Finch, Vave, Moors K Browich, Setu
Melbourne were successful last season by grinding out the hard yards and playing mistake free football then allowing Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Billy Slater to bamboozle defenses from 20m out. That formula has served them well and although they may be lacking in match sharpness, once the forwards get a few carries under their belt, they'll be ready to perform. The ability to offload will be key for Melbourne as Leeds have a tendency to tackle by mob in order to attempt to set the tone in these big games, and running at Jamie Peacock has to be their aim. Although he has been a class player throughout his illustrious career, he is vulnerable and if the Storm can isolate him and force him to make 40+ tackles in this game, he'll be spent. Another key to Storm victory is limiting Danny McGuire and Rob Burrow, Burrow especially has a lightning dart of pace and cannot be allowed to run from dummy half. The markers will have to be alert at every play-the-ball and get Burrow to ground as quickly and efficiently as possible. When defending their own line, the Storm must be careful not to buy any of McGuire's dummies and look to defend the flat pass to an outside runner cutting back across the field. These predictable moves from the Rhinos seem to be missed by all of their opponents in the big games, and should Melbourne neglect to pay attention to them it may be their downfall.
VERDICT
This has all the hallmarks of a classic (well I would say that wouldn't I) the experience and “been there before” know-how of Leeds against the youth and international star quality of Melbourne. Burrow vs Smith, McGuire vs Cronk, Sinfield vs Widdop. There are key match-ups all over the field, but this game will be won and lost in the same place it always is, the pack. Melbourne have the physical ability and experience of a much quicker game to dominate Leeds. If they can maintain a quick play-the-ball and offer regular service to the outside backs, then the excellent kicking game of Cronk, Widdop and Smith should put them over the top. The Storm showed in the Grand Final that they have plenty of bite and determination, while an appetite for defense under the stewardship of Craig Bellamy continues. This is the team that shutout the Doggies in the second half of the NRL Grand Final, Slater is one of the greatest fullbacks to play the game and second only as a defensive fullback to Kris Radlinski. Leeds will come out of the gates fast and look to rile the Storm and involve the Headingley crowd, Sinfield will once again come to the fore and direct his troops all over the field. Do not be surprised if they force a couple of goal line dropouts early and pin Melbourne in their own 20 for large periods of this game. In the end the difference for me is the play-making ability of the Storm spine. Cronk and Widdop in the halves creating overlaps and holes in the Leeds line for the back five to exploit and Smith's kicks from dummy half to Slater in the in-goal have been a highlight of their play and that will continue in this game. Leeds are a champion side and they won't go down easily. Sinfield won't allow that to happen, and with big performances from Peacock, Hall, Burrow and Jones-Buchanan they will be in this one for at least 60 minutes. An accurate kicking game is always key in a game of this magnitude and with the world's greatest five-eighth, Leeds will be able to turn the Melbourne pack around time and time again and make Slater return the ball from inside his own 10m line. If Burrow and McGuire are allowed to consistently make meters from the play-the-ball, then the big Leeds forwards will be able to take the Rhinos close to the Melbourne line and with Hall on the field, there's a chance they can score at any time. The rotation of impact forwards for Leeds will allow them to continue to hit the ball up at pace and like with Melbourne, if they can offload in the tackle, there will be mismatches out wide and Moon, who has been in impressive scoring form now that he's closer to Sydney has the pace and ability to get through the Melbourne line.
At the end of this match, I think Melbourne will come out on top, and I think their defensive ability will allow them to beat the spread and with the game-breakers in their side, I think they'll have too much firepower for this aging Leeds side.
ADVICE
4 pts Melbourne -6.5 points (Evens William Hill)
2 pts Melbourne to win by 6-10 points (5/1 BlueSquare)
2 pts Mahe Fonua first tryscorer (10/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt Joel Moon first tryscorer (16/1 Paddy Power)
0.25 pts Ryan Hall first tryscorer and Melbourne to win by 6-10 points (45/1 Bet365)
0.25 pts Mahe Fonua first tryscorer and Melbourne to win by 11-15 points (45/1 Bet365)
0.25 pts Joel Moon first tryscorer and Leeds to win by 1-5 points (50/1 Bet 365)
0.25 pts Ryan Hoffman first tryscorer and Melbourne to win by 11-15 points (115/1 Bet 365)
Saturday, 19 January 2013
NHL Eastern Conference 2013 Preview
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Northeast
Division
Boston
Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Toronto
Maple Leafs
Winners
: Boston Bruins (10/11 Ladbrokes)
The
Bruins have kept the majority of their roster from the last two
seasons intact and welcome Dougie Hamilton, the 9th
overall pick from the 2011 draft to the big team after spending a
year bulking up physically in Juniors. After Benoit Pouliot joined
the Lightning, there is an open spot on the third line, which looks
most likely to be filled by Chris Bourque, son of Bruins legend and
Hall of Famer Ray Bourque. Bourque will face competition through the
season for his spot, but as Jordan Caron in injured to start the
season, the man acquired from Washington will get the nod.
The
Bruins had 12 players playing in Europe during the lockout, including
both goalies, their first choice defensive pairing and their top two
centers. Tyler Seguin impressed while at EHC Biel in Switzerland,
almost averaging a goal a game and leading the Swiss league in goals
before returning to the Hub. Bruising power forwards Milan Lucic and
Nathan Horton stayed at home, Lucic stayed in Boston during the
lockout and celebrated the birth of his first baby Valentina on
Thursday, while Horton returns after missing the majority of last
season with a concussion. Both have looked sharp in training camp and
the top line with David Krejci at center could be one of the most
destructive in the league.
Tim
Thomas is sitting out the season “to
reconnect with the three F's. Friends, Family, and Faith.” I have
three F's for Thomas but they're all the same word and are followed
by off. Tuukka Rask takes over as the number 1 goaltender and will be
back up by Anton Khudobin. Rask has put up fine numbers behind Thomas
and even led the league in GAA and save percentage in 2010, but he
has struggled with injury the last two seasons, so if he can remain
healthy, the Bruins won't miss Thomas at all.
Playoff
Contenders : Ottawa Senators & Buffalo Sabres
The
Senators have solid goaltending and veteran leadership along with a
young defensive corps and stability within the organization. Daniel
Alfredsson has been a model professional throughout his career and at
the age of 40 this must be his last shot at winning the Cup.
The
Sabres have bulked up during the lockout and picked up agitator Steve
Ott and defenseman Adam Pardy to help them compete with the Bruins
after being pushed around by the Big Bad Bs in the last couple of
seasons, especially after Lucic's collision with Ryan Miller.
Although they have great goaltending in Miller, they still lack
toughness and with the schedule taking place in conference, they will
struggle with the more physical Eastern Conference style of play
No
Hopers : Montreal Canadiens & Toronto Maple Leafs
The
Canadiens are dreadful, and have done nothing on the ice to change
that. Off the ice, they've brought in Marc Begevin as the new GM and
Michel Therrien as head coach.
Toronto
are even worse than Montreal, a situation which will be compounded if
they trade for Roberto Luongo. Brian Burke was fired as GM after
years of hopeless trades and that won't be solved by the acquisition
of James van Riemsdyk from the Flyers.
Atlantic
Division
New
Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Philadelphia
Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins
Winners
: New York Rangers (9/4 Victor)
The
Rangers have one of the youngest teams in the league and those fresh
legs will help with the compressed schedule of the 48 game season.
They were very consistent last season and were rewarded with the
number 1 seed in the East. I expect the same level of consistency
this season and John Tortorella will not allow his players to slacken
off in their pursuit of the Cup. The Rangers made the biggest
offseason acquisition in the league, finally prying sniper Rick Nash
from Columbus. They could put out a line of Marian Gaborik, Brad
Richards and Rick Nash, God help their opponents if they do. The
Rangers can also call one of the best goalies in hockey with reigning
Vezina Trophy winner Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes. They have a
young defense and plenty of experienced players that should take them
deep into this postseason.
Playoff
Contenders : Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers & New
Jersey Devils
The
Penguins have Sidney Crosby back after a nightmare two seasons with
injury and the league's best player will once again propel his team
into the playoffs. Evgeni Malkin had to step into a leadership role
last season and he walked with with the Hart Trophy and the Art Ross
Trophy. Pittsburgh traded Jordan Staal to Carolina, but they won't
miss him too much as he's missed a lot of games in the past few
seasons. They have solid goaltending and Dan Bylsma always has his
troops ready for a battle.
The
Flyers knocked off the Penguins in the first round of the playoffs
last season and should be competitive once again. They've re-signed
Brian Boucher as back-up to Ilya Bryzgalov and acquired Luke Schenn
from Toronto to give Bryzgalov some help as it doesn't look like
Chris Pronger will return after suffering a nasty concussion last
season. Claude Giroux takes over as captain and he can continue to
grow into a superstar of the league in his fifth season with the
Flyers.
The
Devils will have Martin Brodeur back for his 20th
season with the Devils and having lost in the Stanley Cup Finals last
summer, they should be well placed to make another assault on the
playoffs. Although they lost Zach Parise to Minnesota, they signed
Krys Barch and re-signed or extended most of their squad before
free-agency.
No
Hopers : New York Islanders
The
Islanders can't move to Brooklyn quick enough because they are
garbage
Southeast
Division
Carolina
Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Washington
Capitals, Winnipeg Jets
Winner
: Washington Capitals (3/1 Paddy Power)
Newly
enshrined Hall of Famer Adam Oates is the new coach of the Capitals
after Dale Hunter was shown the door despite knocking off the
reigning Stanley Cup champions in last year's playoffs. Oates prefers
to play a much more attack oriented free flowing game than Hunter's
defensive shutdown hockey. All of that is good news to Alexander
Ovechkin who got himself engaged to Maria Kirilenko during the
lockout, and Ovi enjoys offense. He struggled towards the end of
Bruce Boudreau's tenure in Washington and reportedly clashed with
Hunter several times and was not impressed when asked to play a more
defensive style of hockey. The play-making freedom he will be awarded
under Oates should be the spark he needs to re-ignite his career and
although the Caps have lost Alexander Semin to Carolina, they should
have enough offense to compensate ($7 million was too high a price
for any self-respecting GM to pay for Semin) Braden Holtby impressed
at times during last season and especially in the playoffs,
out-dueling Tim Thomas in the first round and going close against
Henrik Lundqvist in the second round. So long as he can maintain that
form as a starter, Washington will have the best goaltending in the
division as Michael Neuvirth is an able backup.
Playoff
Contenders : Carolina Hurricanes & Tampa Bay Lightning
Carolina
were very busy during the offseason, picking up Jordan Staal and
Alexander Semin as mentioned they also re-signed defenseman Joe Corvo
and picked up Kevin Westgarth from the Kings. Along with Eric Staal,
Jeff Skinner and Cam Ward, the Canes already have a good core to
their team, and with Corvo becoming the oldest member of their squad
and only player over 31, they have plenty of youth on their side.
Tampa
are another one of the “last chance” teams and have stocked their
side with veterans for another tilt at the Cup after missing the
playoffs last season and coming up just short of the Stanley Cup
Finals in 2011. The Bolts brought in Sami Salo and Matt Carle in
free-agency and executed a trade-and-sign for Benoit Pouliot. The one
thing they lack of cohesive goaltending and that will be their
downfall.
No
Hopers : Florida Panthers & Winnipeg Jets
Florida
are rebuilding and will be ready to challenge in a couple of seasons,
but not yet.
Winnipeg
are in the wrong division, the wrong conference and as soon as the
NHL can figure out what to do with them, they'll start winning. At
the moment, they serve as a distraction as a road-trip.
FINAL EASTERN STANDINGS
1 Rangers
2 Bruins
3 Capitals
4 Penguins
5 Flyers
6 Senators
7 Sabres
8 Hurricanes
WHO CARES
Thursday, 27 September 2012
NRL Grand Final
NRL GRAND FINAL
This season's Grand Final pits 1st versus 2nd from the table after the weekly rounds as minor premiers Canterbury Bulldogs take on Melbourne Storm.
THE BACKGROUND
The Doggies last won the title in 2004 after defeating the Roosters. Last year's grand final winning coach Des Hasler joined from Manly, they look to have been galvanised and they come into this game having won 15 of their last 16. They knocked off Manly in week 1 of the finals and thumped Souths last week to set up this encounter. Their only defeat since May came in Canberra, losing 34-6 to the Raiders. That game aside, the have been consistent all season and as a result swept this year's Dally M awards, Hasler won coach of the year and Ben Barba, won the Dally M Medal as voted by the journos, the Provan-Summons medal as voted by the fans and the Peter Frillingos Memorial Award for best single-game performance, against the Storm in a 20-4 win in round 16. He also grabbed 21 tries during the season and that translated to a share of the top try-scorer award. As a result of their dominance through the regular season, the Doggies had Barba named at fullback, Josh Morris at centre and Sam Kasiano at prop in the team of the year at the Dally M awards. Should Canterbury win, Hasler will become the first coach in history to win back-to-back Premierships with different clubs
The Bulldogs don't have any players from that 2004 championship side still active, but they do have plenty of experience with 5 of the squad having tasted the Grand Final previously Aiden Tolman, Krisnan Inu, Dene Halatau, David Stagg and Sam Perrett. Not to forget they have James Graham in his first season in Australia, he has played in 6 Super League Grand Finals, losing the last five.
The Bulldogs have named an unchanged side for the third week in succession and the only problem Des Hasler has is deciding who to leave out.
Bulldogs
1. Ben Barba
2. Sam Perrett
3. Josh Morris
4. Krisnan Inu
5. Jonathan Wright
6. Josh Reynolds
7. Kris Keating
8. Aiden Tolman
9. Michael Ennis
10. Sam Kasiano
11. Frank Pritchard
12. Josh Jackson
13. Greg Eastwood
Interchange: James Graham, Dale Finucane, Corey Payne, David Stagg, Dene Halatau (one to be omitted, probably Halatau)
Melbourne come into the game having won their last 7, but after that loss to the Bulldogs in round 16, they lost their next 4. They've looked sensational in the first two weeks of the finals, disposing of the Rabbitohs 24-6 and beating Manly 40-12 last week.
Much of their success this season has been down to the play of their 'Big Three' Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater. The rest of the squad have ably supported that and bought into coach Craig Bellamy's philosophy and despite the controversy over the 2010 salary cap scandal they've been the most consistent side in the NRL during the last 6 or 7 seasons, in fact even although they were docked of all points in the 2010 season, they would've finished 5th in the table.
As a result of that salary cap breach, they were stripped of their Premierships in 2007 and 2009 and their minor premierships in 2006, 2007 and 2008, but hey retain 7 players with Grand Final experience in: Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith, Ryan Hoffman, Todd Lowrie, Dane Nielsen and Will Chambers.
The Storm have more doubts over fitness and as a result Craig Bellamy has named a 21 man squad as follows:
Storm
1. Billy Slater
2. Sisa Waqa
3. Dane Nielsen
4. Will Chambers
5. Justin O'Neill
6. Gareth Widdop
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Jessie Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Bryan Norrie
11. Sika Manu
12. Ryan Hoffman
13. Todd Lowrie
Interchange: Ryan Hinchcliffe, Kevin Proctor, Jaiman Lowe, Richie Fa'aoso, Rory Kostjayson, Mahe Fonua, Siosaia Vave, Anthony Quinn (four to be omitted, Fonua will play if Waqa fails a fitness test)
THE GAME
FOR BULLDOGS TO WIN: Well it's simply enough, they have to dominate Melbourne's pack, keep the big three quiet and get the ball to Barba inside 20m, easy eh? They need to stick to Melbourne early in the game as Melbourne are outstanding when they take a lead into the sheds. They've won 27 of their last 28 when leading at half time. They need to dig deep in the halves, Reynolds and Keating are up against Cooper Cronk (Queensland and Australia) and Gareth Widdop (England) so they have to make up for their lack of experience with real effort and contain Cronk's incisive running and link with Smith and Slater. If there's one area the Bulldogs look stronger it's in the forward pack and if the likes of Sam Kasiano, Frank Pritchard and James Graham can get them rolling forward it will put the Storm on the back-foot. They look strong in the centres too with New South Wales and Australia's Josh Morris and Krisnan Inu who is playing in his third grand final in four years and after two losses previously with Parramatta and New Zealand, he will be desperate to finally grab a premiership ring.
FOR STORM TO WIN: Dead simple job for them too, stop Ben Barba. As I mentioned earlier he won the Dally M Medal and won the Peter Frillingos Memorial Award for his performance against the Storm scoring a try and setting up two others including his remarkable run from inside his own in-goal area to set up Josh Morris. If he gets the chance to stamp his class on this game, it could be curtains for the Storm, however he is up against, for me, The best fullback in the game in Billy Slater. Slater won last year's Dally M and won the Clive Churchill (man of the match) last time Melbourne played in the Grand Final. Melbourne's kicking game must be spot-on as it has been for most of the year. Cronk and Widdop need to find the corners at every opportunity. During the regular season 60.5% of the Storm's kicks in play found the grass, they excel at kicks around the goal line especially with Cameron Smith out of dummy half. Defensively they excel at diffusing bombs, they were the best team in the regular season safely defending 45 of 50 attacking bombs, and as Canterbury scored 27 tries during the regular season from kicks (best in the league) that defensive nous and skill has to show up on Sunday to keep the Doggies out. They say that to win big games, your big players need to show up and in Slater, Cronk and Smith, Melbourne have three of the biggest and arguably the best 1, 7, 9 combination in league.
THE VERDICT
The handicap line is set at Melbourne -2, but recent history tells us Grand Finals don't finish this close, you have to go back to Melbourne's win over St. George in 1999 to find a match with less than a try between the sides. So which side to pick? The Bulldogs have been almost unbeatable over the last 4 months, and with Hasler at the helm, they have all the tools to win this. However, the Storm were sensational in beating the Rabbitohs, completing 88% of their sets and despite the very wet and slippery conditions, they only made 5 errors and played old school footy, sticking it up their jumpers and running over the Bunnies. They dropped a bit in completion rate against Manly to a measly 82% but stepped up to dominate the Sea Eagles pack, limiting them to 774m against their own 1633m, breaking the Manly line 7 times and only missed 8 tackles. Particularly telling is the missed tackles stat, as Canterbury rely on breaking the line and cleaning up broken fields, which led to 3 of their tries against Souths last week. The Doggies however missed 22 tackles and although they gained 350m more metres in the game, they committed 8 errors and their success mainly came from their line breaks and offloads. If Melbourne can shut that down, they can win their first legitimate Premiership since 1999.
ADVICE
4pts Melbourne -2 : 10/11 generally (Melbourne -3.5, 2.10 with Centrebet)
1.5pts Will Chambers first try : 12/1 Paddy Power (13.00 with Centrebet)
1.5pts Ryan Hoffman any time try : 3/1 Ladbrokes (4.00 with Sportsbet)
2pts Cooper Cronk to win Clive Churchill Medal : 5/1 Coral (6.00 with Sportsbet)
1pt Sika Manu to win Clive Churchill Medal : 40/1 Bet365 (51.00 with Luxbet)
This season's Grand Final pits 1st versus 2nd from the table after the weekly rounds as minor premiers Canterbury Bulldogs take on Melbourne Storm.
THE BACKGROUND
The Doggies last won the title in 2004 after defeating the Roosters. Last year's grand final winning coach Des Hasler joined from Manly, they look to have been galvanised and they come into this game having won 15 of their last 16. They knocked off Manly in week 1 of the finals and thumped Souths last week to set up this encounter. Their only defeat since May came in Canberra, losing 34-6 to the Raiders. That game aside, the have been consistent all season and as a result swept this year's Dally M awards, Hasler won coach of the year and Ben Barba, won the Dally M Medal as voted by the journos, the Provan-Summons medal as voted by the fans and the Peter Frillingos Memorial Award for best single-game performance, against the Storm in a 20-4 win in round 16. He also grabbed 21 tries during the season and that translated to a share of the top try-scorer award. As a result of their dominance through the regular season, the Doggies had Barba named at fullback, Josh Morris at centre and Sam Kasiano at prop in the team of the year at the Dally M awards. Should Canterbury win, Hasler will become the first coach in history to win back-to-back Premierships with different clubs
The Bulldogs don't have any players from that 2004 championship side still active, but they do have plenty of experience with 5 of the squad having tasted the Grand Final previously Aiden Tolman, Krisnan Inu, Dene Halatau, David Stagg and Sam Perrett. Not to forget they have James Graham in his first season in Australia, he has played in 6 Super League Grand Finals, losing the last five.
The Bulldogs have named an unchanged side for the third week in succession and the only problem Des Hasler has is deciding who to leave out.
Bulldogs
1. Ben Barba
2. Sam Perrett
3. Josh Morris
4. Krisnan Inu
5. Jonathan Wright
6. Josh Reynolds
7. Kris Keating
8. Aiden Tolman
9. Michael Ennis
10. Sam Kasiano
11. Frank Pritchard
12. Josh Jackson
13. Greg Eastwood
Interchange: James Graham, Dale Finucane, Corey Payne, David Stagg, Dene Halatau (one to be omitted, probably Halatau)
Melbourne come into the game having won their last 7, but after that loss to the Bulldogs in round 16, they lost their next 4. They've looked sensational in the first two weeks of the finals, disposing of the Rabbitohs 24-6 and beating Manly 40-12 last week.
Much of their success this season has been down to the play of their 'Big Three' Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater. The rest of the squad have ably supported that and bought into coach Craig Bellamy's philosophy and despite the controversy over the 2010 salary cap scandal they've been the most consistent side in the NRL during the last 6 or 7 seasons, in fact even although they were docked of all points in the 2010 season, they would've finished 5th in the table.
As a result of that salary cap breach, they were stripped of their Premierships in 2007 and 2009 and their minor premierships in 2006, 2007 and 2008, but hey retain 7 players with Grand Final experience in: Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith, Ryan Hoffman, Todd Lowrie, Dane Nielsen and Will Chambers.
The Storm have more doubts over fitness and as a result Craig Bellamy has named a 21 man squad as follows:
Storm
1. Billy Slater
2. Sisa Waqa
3. Dane Nielsen
4. Will Chambers
5. Justin O'Neill
6. Gareth Widdop
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Jessie Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Bryan Norrie
11. Sika Manu
12. Ryan Hoffman
13. Todd Lowrie
Interchange: Ryan Hinchcliffe, Kevin Proctor, Jaiman Lowe, Richie Fa'aoso, Rory Kostjayson, Mahe Fonua, Siosaia Vave, Anthony Quinn (four to be omitted, Fonua will play if Waqa fails a fitness test)
THE GAME
FOR BULLDOGS TO WIN: Well it's simply enough, they have to dominate Melbourne's pack, keep the big three quiet and get the ball to Barba inside 20m, easy eh? They need to stick to Melbourne early in the game as Melbourne are outstanding when they take a lead into the sheds. They've won 27 of their last 28 when leading at half time. They need to dig deep in the halves, Reynolds and Keating are up against Cooper Cronk (Queensland and Australia) and Gareth Widdop (England) so they have to make up for their lack of experience with real effort and contain Cronk's incisive running and link with Smith and Slater. If there's one area the Bulldogs look stronger it's in the forward pack and if the likes of Sam Kasiano, Frank Pritchard and James Graham can get them rolling forward it will put the Storm on the back-foot. They look strong in the centres too with New South Wales and Australia's Josh Morris and Krisnan Inu who is playing in his third grand final in four years and after two losses previously with Parramatta and New Zealand, he will be desperate to finally grab a premiership ring.
FOR STORM TO WIN: Dead simple job for them too, stop Ben Barba. As I mentioned earlier he won the Dally M Medal and won the Peter Frillingos Memorial Award for his performance against the Storm scoring a try and setting up two others including his remarkable run from inside his own in-goal area to set up Josh Morris. If he gets the chance to stamp his class on this game, it could be curtains for the Storm, however he is up against, for me, The best fullback in the game in Billy Slater. Slater won last year's Dally M and won the Clive Churchill (man of the match) last time Melbourne played in the Grand Final. Melbourne's kicking game must be spot-on as it has been for most of the year. Cronk and Widdop need to find the corners at every opportunity. During the regular season 60.5% of the Storm's kicks in play found the grass, they excel at kicks around the goal line especially with Cameron Smith out of dummy half. Defensively they excel at diffusing bombs, they were the best team in the regular season safely defending 45 of 50 attacking bombs, and as Canterbury scored 27 tries during the regular season from kicks (best in the league) that defensive nous and skill has to show up on Sunday to keep the Doggies out. They say that to win big games, your big players need to show up and in Slater, Cronk and Smith, Melbourne have three of the biggest and arguably the best 1, 7, 9 combination in league.
THE VERDICT
The handicap line is set at Melbourne -2, but recent history tells us Grand Finals don't finish this close, you have to go back to Melbourne's win over St. George in 1999 to find a match with less than a try between the sides. So which side to pick? The Bulldogs have been almost unbeatable over the last 4 months, and with Hasler at the helm, they have all the tools to win this. However, the Storm were sensational in beating the Rabbitohs, completing 88% of their sets and despite the very wet and slippery conditions, they only made 5 errors and played old school footy, sticking it up their jumpers and running over the Bunnies. They dropped a bit in completion rate against Manly to a measly 82% but stepped up to dominate the Sea Eagles pack, limiting them to 774m against their own 1633m, breaking the Manly line 7 times and only missed 8 tackles. Particularly telling is the missed tackles stat, as Canterbury rely on breaking the line and cleaning up broken fields, which led to 3 of their tries against Souths last week. The Doggies however missed 22 tackles and although they gained 350m more metres in the game, they committed 8 errors and their success mainly came from their line breaks and offloads. If Melbourne can shut that down, they can win their first legitimate Premiership since 1999.
ADVICE
4pts Melbourne -2 : 10/11 generally (Melbourne -3.5, 2.10 with Centrebet)
1.5pts Will Chambers first try : 12/1 Paddy Power (13.00 with Centrebet)
1.5pts Ryan Hoffman any time try : 3/1 Ladbrokes (4.00 with Sportsbet)
2pts Cooper Cronk to win Clive Churchill Medal : 5/1 Coral (6.00 with Sportsbet)
1pt Sika Manu to win Clive Churchill Medal : 40/1 Bet365 (51.00 with Luxbet)
Friday, 25 May 2012
Eurovision Song Contest 2012 Preview
As you should all be aware, this Saturday night sees the final of the Eurovision Song Contest. If this is the first you're hearing about it, you've missed two cracking semi-finals, including most of the novelty acts who have now been sent home. Tuesday night saw ten qualifiers produced for Saturday as did Thursday night. These twenty acts will join the big 5 (UK, France, Italy, Spain and Germany) and last year's winner and venue for the final, Azerbaijan, or as the host of the show will say, AZ-ER-BAI-JAN. The songs for the final have been drawn in a semi-random order and the order in which I preview them will be the order in which they will perform. The results will be provided by a 50:50 split between the public vote, and a jury of musical experts from each country that entered, regardless of whether they made the final or not. Points are allocated 12,10,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1, and the country with the most points gets the dubious honour of Eurovision winner and the expense of hosting next year's show. As my twitter followers may have noticed, I tweeted along to both semis, so I will include those thoughts too where appropriate.
1. United Kingdom
Entry: Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free
Politics: Who knows how many votes the UK will get, there are the usual few countries that hand over their twelve points, but as the UK has generally steered away from winding up Europe, it looks like for once the song may be judged on it's merits which can only be a good thing.
Last Year: 11th
Best Result: Winners 1997, 1981, 1976, 1969, 1967
Hero: Sir Cliff Richard, typical of the UK's involvement, he finished 2nd in 1968 (UK has 14 2nd place finishes) and third in 1973
Best Friends: Ireland, Austria, Portugal
Music: A dreary ballad, had me searching for a rope. It's poor, I have no idea why anyone would want to pick up their phone and vote for this.
Best Odds: 20/1 (bwin)
Prospects: Despite 'The Hump' getting involved, this song was doomed to fail. 11th-15th for me.
2. Hungary
Entry : Compact Disco - Sound Of Our Hearts
"Hungary making a bid for an electronics advert soundtrack. It's garbage, get it off.#Eurovision"
Politics: Suffered ever since the fall of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and that episode of McGyver that is just film from the Italian job. As with many Eastern European countries, they got their best result on debut and have been rotten since. Somehow they have friends in Scandinavia and that could help them get a few votes as the Scandinavian bloc has a near full quota.
Last Year: 22nd
Best Result: 4th 1994
Hero: Fredeika Bayer, owner of that fourth position finish
Best Friends: Finland, Iceland, Poland
Music: Rocky ballad, performance exhibits some passion, but the lyrics are meaningless and weak.
Best Odds: 250/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Grim, it's not the greatest of songs and it's not the greatest position in the running order. I don't think they'll finish last though.
3. Albania
Entry: Rona Nishilu - Suus
"Scream if you love Albania, oh she has.#Eurovision"
"Albanian hairstyles are a bit behind the rest of us.#Eurovision"
Politics: Firmly in the Balkan bloc, they have been competing since 2004 and they only seem to miss the final when they sing in Albanian, so it is a surprise to see them get this far. They don't have many enemies, but they don't have too many friends either. They should chuck a few points the UK's way as Albanians are mad for Norman Wisdom.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 7th 2004
Hero: Anjeza Shahin, their first ever entry
Best Friends: Macedonia, Greece, Switzerland
Music: She stands on stage, sings for a bit then starts bawling. Just like bonfire night, keep your dogs away from this.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: I hate it, you'll hate it, the whole of Europe will hate it. Probably last.
4. Lithuania
Entry: Donny Montell - Love Is Blind
"The diamante blindfold and disco music makes me sick.#Eurovision"
Politics: Part of the ever increasing Baltic bloc, they can count on Estonia and Latvia's votes, as well as a few from the Scandinavians, Russia and Belarus. No real hope for widespread support across Europe however as they haven't made much of an impact, and their song isn't good enough to warrant that support.
Last Year: 19th
Best Result: 6th 2006
Hero: Ovidijus Vyšniauskas, he couldn't even get a point in the semi-finals
Best Friends: Latvia, Ireland, UK
Music: First half ballad, second half disco. All rubbish and painful to listen to.
Best Odds: 250/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Dead in the water, will be happy if it finishes in front of Albania, should be embarrassed if it doesn't.
5. Bosnia
Entry: MayaSar - Korake ti znam
"Bosnian ballad makes me weepy.#Eurovision"
Politics: Solid member of the Balkan bloc, and based on the dross that precedes them in the running order, could be a hoover for points. If you take into account that the other Balkan entries are mince, this song could get a fair few 12 pointers, so could end up giving layers a red face.
Last Year: 6th
Best Result: 3rd 2006
Hero: Hari Mata Hari, the 3rd place getter
Best Friends: Croatia, Turkey, Slovenia
Music: A powerful ballad in Bosnian, not an elaborate performance, but she's got a great voice, and that's what should matter.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Bet365)
Prospects: I'm a big fan and given the position in the running order, a good recent history at the event and the fact that it goes against the grain by having a slower song, I give it a big chance, certainly bigger than the layers do.
6. Russia
Entry: Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody
"Tatu they are not.#Eurovision"
"That had winner written all over it.#Eurovision"
Politics: The supreme power in Europe, literally has the power to turn out the lights. Putin's (re-)election wasn't to warmly received in Russia, however the UK, France and Germany will be delighted that their gas supplies are safe for now. It remains to seen if they can retain the crown so soon after their 2008 triumph, but the anti-Stalin grannies could do it.
Last Year: 7th
Best Result: Winners 2008
Hero: Dima Bilan and Evgeni Plushenko, one of the finest choreographed performance in the history of Eurovision.
Best Friends: Estonia, Latvia, Israel
Music: It's 6 grannies singing a song the Cheeky Girls would be proud of whilst their magic pasty oven spins in the background. What's not to love?
Best Odds: 13/2 (Ladbrokes)
Prospects: Hilariously strong, the song blends the traditional Eurovision cheese with a back-story that would have X factor finalists weeping. The Babushki are trying to raise money to rebuild their church that was torn down by Stalin's forces 70 odd years ago. Aww. Well worth a cheeky fiver.
7. Iceland
Entry: Greta Salome & Jonsi - Never Forget
"Iceland were strong, they could smash this tonight.#Eurovision"
Politics: Mostly neutral in European affairs, until they started messing with British fish, collapsing economies and destroying holidays with their volcanoes.
They vote in the Scandinavian bloc, but they're the outsiders of that group. Most of Europe's holiday makers have gotten over Eyjafjallajokull so they might get some votes.
Last Year: 20th
Best Result: 2nd 2009, 1999
Hero: Jonsi, this is his second appearance representing Iceland
Best Friends: Sweden, Norway, Denmark
Music: Strong ballad, Greta plays the violin, it's in with a shout, despite her horsey looking face.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Decent EW shout, will get plenty of Scandinavian votes and should be strong with the juries.
8. Cyprus
Entry: Ivi Adamou - La La Love
"Surely she used to be a bloke? Cyprus out tonight I think.#Eurovision"
Politics: Not much of a player on Eurovision scene due to their dodgy geographical location and political position stuck between Greece and Turkey, although Greece and Turkey tend to exchange 12 points like teenage saliva. Cyprus usually suffers as their public vote to choose their act often ends up picking a young, unknown Cypriot to represent them.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 5th 2004, 1997, 1982
Hero: Lisa Andreas, 5th in 2004
Best Friends: Greece, UK, Malta
Music: Upbeat dance number with what appears to be a dancing bench. It's kinda catchy and I'm happy to say I've changed my view from Tuesday night
Best Odds: 50/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Without too many allies across Europe it's going to be tough to scrape the votes together, especially as the other dance tracks seem to be more popular with the public. The dance bench is worked into the performance well, but nothing else seems to happen.
9. France
Entry: Anggun - Echo (You and I)
Politics: It's early days yet for Francois Hollande, but the noises being made form Paris aren't likely to be received well by the rest of the EU. The other Eurozone countries might have to preach their austerity in terms of donating points to France. We don't have a semi-final result to gauge what that level of support is, but my guess is they wouldn't have qualified.
Last Year: 15th
Best Result: Winners 1977 1969 1962 1960 1958
Hero: Marie Myriam 1977 winner
Best Friends: Switzerland, Norway, Greece
Music: Awful, it offends my ears, repetitive tuneless crap.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Dire, it's a horrible song, they're knee deep in controversy, and to top it all off they're French.
10. Italy
Entry: Nina Zilli - L'amore è femmina
Politics: Where do you start, since the disposal of Berlusconi and the downgrading of their credit rating, the Italians haven't exactly been the most popular in Europe. At least Berlusconi wasn't strung up from a lamppost. They also tend to go in the huff with Eurovision and pull out every few years, so I suppose we should be thankful they're here this year.
Last Year: 2nd
Best Result: Winner 1990, 1964
Hero: Gigliola Cinquetti, 1964 winner
Best Friends: Portugal, Spain, Finland
Music: Winehouse-esque Italian/English mix. Not my cup of tea, but plenty will enjoy it.
Best Odds: 11/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Could go one better than last year, plenty of appeal in the song itself, but the Italians aren't really a part of any big voting bloc, so they may be counting on charity from across the Adriatic.
11. Estonia
Entry: Ott Lepland - Kuula
"Heart-throb ladies? Estonia defying their huge price with this effort.#Eurovision"
Politics: Firm member of the Baltic bloc, but has a poor recent record. They will benefit from Latvia and Finland's absence and possibly scrape a few Scandinavian votes. They have a lot of public support for the competition which reversed the decision to pull out of the 2009 contest, and they don't make enemies in Europe.
Last Year: 24th
Best Result: Winner 2001
Hero: Tanel Padar, 2001 winner
Best Friends : Finland, Sweden, Ireland
Music: Another ballad from the second semi, well performed and simply presented, but Ott is the star of Estonian high school musical, and I'm reliably informed he's a cute guy, so that could sway a few female votes.
Best Odds: 100/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Given that this track struggles with the Estonian jury in the selection process, you'd think they'd be in trouble, but I'm not sure, it's a good song, Ott has a strong voice, and it will be popular with the voters across Europe, chance at a big price.
12. Norway
Entry: Tooji - Stay
Politics: Enjoys the support of the Scandinavian bloc, but not universally popular because of their flirtation and teasing with EU membership. With the Brevik trial coming so close to Eurovision it's fresh in voters' minds and could play a part in who they decide to cast that vote for. Norway officially have the worst record of any participant at Eurovision, despite winning the contest 3 times, they have finished last on 10 occasions
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: Winner 2009, 1995, 1985
Hero: Anita Thallaug, nul points 1963
Best Friends: Sweden, Ireland, Iceland
Music: It's so forgettable, I just listened to it to jog my memory from Thursday, and I've forgotten it again. It's just bland rubbish.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Could be ten times that price and still not worth it. Use this opportunity for a tea break.
13. Azerbaijan
Entry: Sabina Babayeva - When the Music Dies
Politics: New boys on the scene, this is their fifth competition and their worst result is 8th. The novelty may be wearing off, and I expect their support to wane in the not too distant future
Last Year: Winner obviously
Best Result: Winner 2011
Hero: Eldar, our AZ-ER-BAI-JAN host.
Best Friends: Turkey, Ukraine, Russia
Music: It's almost immaterial what the music sounds like, they can't win back to back.
Best Odds: 66/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: None, the last back-to-back winner were Ireland when they knocked in a three-timer in the early 90s and as such, we're highly unlikely to see another back-to-back for a while if at all.
14. Romania
Entry: Mandinga - Zaleilah
"You will hear this in every club in Malia, Magaluf etc this summer. Get in Romania.#Eurovision"
"He's got bagpipes, that gets my vote on Saturday.#Eurovision"
Politics: New boys in the EU, but starting to get the same treatment in Western countries as Poles etc. Embraced capitalism and Eurovision, entering for the first time in 1994. Never missed the final since the introduction of the semi-finals in 2004
Last Year: 17th
Best Result: 3rd 2010, 2005
Hero: Paula Selling & Ovi, 3rd in 2010
Best Friends: Spain, Moldova, Israel
Music: Dance track, with five guys pretending to play instruments. The highlight of the performance is the moon-walking bagpipe player at the start. The singer also looks a bit like Tulisa, but with her mouth empty.
Best Odds: 25/1 (BetFred)
Prospect: I like the track and I feel it'll resonate across Europe, my only concern being the juries may not be too keen on it.
15. Denmark
Entry: Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better
"Instantly forgettable from Denmark.#Eurovision"
Politics: Firmly ingrained in the Scandanavian bloc, hasn't made any big political moves in Europe which has helped them slip under the radar in this competition and they should be top 10.
Last Year: 5th
Best Result: Winner 2000, 1963
Hero: Jorgen and Niels Olsen, Fly on the Wings of Love 2000 winner
Best Friends: Norway, Iceland, Sweden
Music: Easy listening background music when you trying to concentrate on something far more important. does have a double bass mime and a xylophone solo though.
Best Odds: 40/1
Prospect: Most will have forgotten the track by the time it's finished, plus it's sandwiched in the running order between two far more popular tracks.
16. Greece
Entry: Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac
"Catchy tune Greece, 10/1 looks good about now. Not too racy, but certainly going for the lads vote.#Eurovision"
Politics: Everybody in Europe hates these plate-smashing, debt-defaulting, neo-Nazi voting, man-boy love purveyors. Somehow they've managed to finish top ten every year since 2004. Except Cyprus, the entire Eurozone blames Greece for their fiscal difficulties
Last Year: 3rd
Best Result: Winners 2005
Hero: Helena Paparizou, winner in 2005, 3rd in 2001
Best Friends: Cyprus, Spain, UK
Music: It's catchy enough and the lads will enjoy the wind machines and the skimpy outfit.
Best Odds: 50/1 (BetFred)
Prospect: Minimal, they've got one of the worst time-slots possible, right next to Sweden.
17. Sweden
Entry: Loreen - Euphoria
"Overrated nonsense from Sweden. Get it to fuck.#Eurovision"
"Probably the most chart ready entry though. Can see why money is coming for it.#Eurovision"
Politics: Probably the leader of the Scandinavian bloc and has great past form in Eurovision for bring the most successful act to ever perform in the Contest
Last Year: 3rd
Best Result: Winner 1999, 1991, 1984, 1974
Hero: ABBA
Best Friends: Norway, Denmark, UK
Music: I'm not a big fan, the song itself is bearable, but it's the performance that annoys me, the hippie nonsense of pushing the energy around and her stupid crab shuffle during the first chorus.
Best Odds: 5/4 (Boylesports)
Prospects: If she wins, good luck, if not, good for the music industry and TV viewers everywhere.
18. Turkey
Entry: Can Bonomo - Love Me Back
"Looks like the Turks are still taking fashion advice from Assassins Creed revelations.#Eurovision"
"Annoyingly catchy from Turkey, got stupid money on that.#Eurovision"
Politics: Murky at best, outsiders in Europe and outsiders in Asia, probably not the best way to try and win a popularity contest across Europe. The influx of Western European tourists has helped broaden Turkey's appeal and the adoption of Turkish cuisine as a new 3am snack should grab a few UK votes
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: Winner 2003
Hero: Sertab Erener, winner.
Best Friends: Germany, France, Netherlands
Music: It's a jaunty little tune, reminiscent of the Inspector Gadget theme tune and it does have some spectacular choreography when the dancers construct a boat onstage.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Betfred)
Prospect: Despite the position in the line-up, I still think this track could grab some votes and finish towards the top of the table.
19. Spain
Entry: Pastora Soler - Quédate conmigo
Politics: Relatively safe, usually votes with Portugal and the other Latin countries, taken a bit of heat over it's economy but nowhere near
Last Year: 23rd
Best Result: Winner 1969, 1968
Hero: Julio Iglesias, 4th in 1970
Best Friends: Portugal, Greece, Switzerland
Music: Belting big song, could be a winner with the voters and the juries alike, but hasn't won in over 40 years.
Best Odds: 33/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Not brilliant, but could be due a win after all these years.
20. Germany
Entry:Roman Lob - Standing Still
Politics: Flexed it's muscles during the economic crisis, but starting to feel a bit of backlash from the new French administration and voters in Greece. Could be seen as rising above the rest of Europe in a big brother type role, the rest of Europe remembers how that went last time and will be keen to avoid a repeat.
Last Year: 10th
Best Result: Winner 2010, 1982
Hero: Lena, first winner since re-unification
Best Friends: Spain, Denmark, Portugal
Music: Middle of the road ballad, but Germany has had some success with songs in English
Best Odds: 40/1 (BetFred)
Prospects: Relatively poor, it's a decent song, but their challenge this year is hampered by their political position.
21. Malta
Entry: Kurt Calleja - This Is The Night
"Much better Malta. Quality effort. That's a finalist.#Eurovision"
Politics: It's little Malta, everyone like Malta, but nobody really votes for them. Being an island in the middle of the Med does have it's disadvantages believe it or not. Solidarity with the UK due to being a former member of the British Empire both sides actions regarding HMS Illustrious during the Second World War
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 2nd 2005, 2002
Hero: Chiara, 2nd in 2005 and 3rd in 1998
Best Friends:Ireland, Croatia, Turkey
Music: Great little tune, with the exception of the female backing singer who's English is pretty poor along with her command of her pitch, but clearly the best dance moves of the field, and the shuffle will be going into my repertoire
Best Odds: 150/1 (bwin)
Prospects: Limited, doesn't have the political capital to cash in on this great spot in the running order. Should be a vote-winner, but not sure how Europe will like it.
22. FYR Macedonia
Entry: Kaliopi - Crno i belo
"Decent effort from Macedonia. Brought along their own Bonnie Tyler this year.#Eurovision"
Politics: Balkan through and through and with less Balkan states than expected in the final, they could get a lot more votes than they should, especially sitting so late in the line-up.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 12th 2006
Hero: Vlado Javenski, debut performer in 1998
Best Friends: Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia
Music: Gravelly, screeching ballad. Shouldn't be that popular but seems to have some appeal.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Stan James)
Prospects: Slim, a lot of voters will be put off by the vocal performance, and the juries won't be too impressed either.
23. Ireland
Entry: Jedward - Waterline
"A walking advert for abortion. Give my "my lovely horse" anyday.#Eurovision"
"Those two fuckers could drown in a shower.#Eurovision"
"Jedward are too stupid to live.#Eurovision"
Politics: Ireland's liability across Europe seems to have dampened and their back to their stereotypical slow-thinking jovial drinking selves in European eyes. Probably brought the most exposed performers to the show, and their broad appeal should be a help to Irish chances
Last Year: 8th
Best Result: Winners 1996, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1987, 1980, 1970
Hero: Father Ted Crilly and Father Dougal McGuire
Best Friends: UK, Sweden, Switzerland
Music: Really catchy bubblegum pop track, upbeat, strong lyrics and a standout performance from the semi-final with the water fountain
Best Odds: 33/1 (SportingBet)
Prospects: I think it's great track and it will connect with the viewers across Europe it's in a perfect spot in the order and the lads just need to refrain from going completely over the top in their performance and they could have a winner on their hands
24. Serbia
Entry: Zeljko Joksimovic - Nije Ljubav Stvar
"Not that impressive from Serbia. Wouldn't be a surprise if they don't make it.#Eurovision"
Politics: One of the Balkan states left in the competition, so there are plenty of votes available, certainly improved their standing in Europe in the last 5 years, and if they could just stop producing war criminals, they'd be doing much better than they have been.
Last Year: 14th
Best Result: Winner 2007
Hero: Marija Šerifović, winner in 2007, the first song in Serbian to win.
Best Friends: Bosnia, Slovenia, Switzerland
Music: Dreadful ballad, it appears to be all the Serbians like to listen too.
Best Odds: 10/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: I just don't see the appeal of the song, and I can't understand how it can be so short in the market. I certainly won't be voting for it.
25. Ukraine
Entry: Gaintana - Be My Guest
Politics: Dodgy, although they are getting ready to co-host the European championships, Yulia Tymoshenko still resides in prison and she has plenty of friends in Europe, can't seem them overcoming that, twinned with the furore over prices of hotels for travelling football fans.
Last Year: 4th
Best Result: Winner 2004
Hero: Ruslana, and her wild dances
Best Friends: Poland, Russia, Belarus
Music: It's a dance track straight out of 1992
Best Odds: 40/1 (Betfred)
Prospects: Ukraine has a great record in Eurovision, but I'm inclined to oppose them due to their sticky political situation and the fact I don't like their track.
26. Moldova
Entry: Pasha Parfeny - Lautar
"Moldovan Chico with Moldovan Saturdays. I used to enjoy Moldova's entry, but this is tame by their standards.#Eurovision"
Politics: A newcomer to the event, they vote with the Balkans and the Black Sea blocs, they have consistently qualified from the semi-finals and they do usually pick out a memorable performer for our entertainment like Zdob si Zdub. They haven't been that successful in the competition itself, but they do have a tremendous online support.
Last Year: 12th
Best Result: 6th 2005
Hero: Sergey Stepanov EPIC SAX GUY
Best Friends: Romania, Portugal, Ukraine
Music: It's cheesy Eurovision finest. Parts of the song are in English, yet the quality of English is laughable.
Best Odds: 100/1 (BetFred)
Prospects: None whatsoever
ADVICE
Estonia 0.5pt EW @ 100/1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.5pt EW @ 150/1
Cyprus 0.5pt EW @ 50/1
Turkey 0.5pt EW @ 80/1
Ireland 0.5pt EW @ 33/1
1. United Kingdom
Entry: Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free
Politics: Who knows how many votes the UK will get, there are the usual few countries that hand over their twelve points, but as the UK has generally steered away from winding up Europe, it looks like for once the song may be judged on it's merits which can only be a good thing.
Last Year: 11th
Best Result: Winners 1997, 1981, 1976, 1969, 1967
Hero: Sir Cliff Richard, typical of the UK's involvement, he finished 2nd in 1968 (UK has 14 2nd place finishes) and third in 1973
Best Friends: Ireland, Austria, Portugal
Music: A dreary ballad, had me searching for a rope. It's poor, I have no idea why anyone would want to pick up their phone and vote for this.
Best Odds: 20/1 (bwin)
Prospects: Despite 'The Hump' getting involved, this song was doomed to fail. 11th-15th for me.
2. Hungary
Entry : Compact Disco - Sound Of Our Hearts
"Hungary making a bid for an electronics advert soundtrack. It's garbage, get it off.
Politics: Suffered ever since the fall of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and that episode of McGyver that is just film from the Italian job. As with many Eastern European countries, they got their best result on debut and have been rotten since. Somehow they have friends in Scandinavia and that could help them get a few votes as the Scandinavian bloc has a near full quota.
Last Year: 22nd
Best Result: 4th 1994
Hero: Fredeika Bayer, owner of that fourth position finish
Best Friends: Finland, Iceland, Poland
Music: Rocky ballad, performance exhibits some passion, but the lyrics are meaningless and weak.
Best Odds: 250/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Grim, it's not the greatest of songs and it's not the greatest position in the running order. I don't think they'll finish last though.
3. Albania
Entry: Rona Nishilu - Suus
"Scream if you love Albania, oh she has.
"Albanian hairstyles are a bit behind the rest of us.
Politics: Firmly in the Balkan bloc, they have been competing since 2004 and they only seem to miss the final when they sing in Albanian, so it is a surprise to see them get this far. They don't have many enemies, but they don't have too many friends either. They should chuck a few points the UK's way as Albanians are mad for Norman Wisdom.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 7th 2004
Hero: Anjeza Shahin, their first ever entry
Best Friends: Macedonia, Greece, Switzerland
Music: She stands on stage, sings for a bit then starts bawling. Just like bonfire night, keep your dogs away from this.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: I hate it, you'll hate it, the whole of Europe will hate it. Probably last.
4. Lithuania
Entry: Donny Montell - Love Is Blind
"The diamante blindfold and disco music makes me sick.
Politics: Part of the ever increasing Baltic bloc, they can count on Estonia and Latvia's votes, as well as a few from the Scandinavians, Russia and Belarus. No real hope for widespread support across Europe however as they haven't made much of an impact, and their song isn't good enough to warrant that support.
Last Year: 19th
Best Result: 6th 2006
Hero: Ovidijus Vyšniauskas, he couldn't even get a point in the semi-finals
Best Friends: Latvia, Ireland, UK
Music: First half ballad, second half disco. All rubbish and painful to listen to.
Best Odds: 250/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Dead in the water, will be happy if it finishes in front of Albania, should be embarrassed if it doesn't.
5. Bosnia
Entry: MayaSar - Korake ti znam
"Bosnian ballad makes me weepy.
Politics: Solid member of the Balkan bloc, and based on the dross that precedes them in the running order, could be a hoover for points. If you take into account that the other Balkan entries are mince, this song could get a fair few 12 pointers, so could end up giving layers a red face.
Last Year: 6th
Best Result: 3rd 2006
Hero: Hari Mata Hari, the 3rd place getter
Best Friends: Croatia, Turkey, Slovenia
Music: A powerful ballad in Bosnian, not an elaborate performance, but she's got a great voice, and that's what should matter.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Bet365)
Prospects: I'm a big fan and given the position in the running order, a good recent history at the event and the fact that it goes against the grain by having a slower song, I give it a big chance, certainly bigger than the layers do.
6. Russia
Entry: Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody
"Tatu they are not.
"That had winner written all over it.
Politics: The supreme power in Europe, literally has the power to turn out the lights. Putin's (re-)election wasn't to warmly received in Russia, however the UK, France and Germany will be delighted that their gas supplies are safe for now. It remains to seen if they can retain the crown so soon after their 2008 triumph, but the anti-Stalin grannies could do it.
Last Year: 7th
Best Result: Winners 2008
Hero: Dima Bilan and Evgeni Plushenko, one of the finest choreographed performance in the history of Eurovision.
Best Friends: Estonia, Latvia, Israel
Music: It's 6 grannies singing a song the Cheeky Girls would be proud of whilst their magic pasty oven spins in the background. What's not to love?
Best Odds: 13/2 (Ladbrokes)
Prospects: Hilariously strong, the song blends the traditional Eurovision cheese with a back-story that would have X factor finalists weeping. The Babushki are trying to raise money to rebuild their church that was torn down by Stalin's forces 70 odd years ago. Aww. Well worth a cheeky fiver.
7. Iceland
Entry: Greta Salome & Jonsi - Never Forget
"Iceland were strong, they could smash this tonight.
Politics: Mostly neutral in European affairs, until they started messing with British fish, collapsing economies and destroying holidays with their volcanoes.
Last Year: 20th
Best Result: 2nd 2009, 1999
Hero: Jonsi, this is his second appearance representing Iceland
Best Friends: Sweden, Norway, Denmark
Music: Strong ballad, Greta plays the violin, it's in with a shout, despite her horsey looking face.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Decent EW shout, will get plenty of Scandinavian votes and should be strong with the juries.
8. Cyprus
Entry: Ivi Adamou - La La Love
"Surely she used to be a bloke? Cyprus out tonight I think.
Politics: Not much of a player on Eurovision scene due to their dodgy geographical location and political position stuck between Greece and Turkey, although Greece and Turkey tend to exchange 12 points like teenage saliva. Cyprus usually suffers as their public vote to choose their act often ends up picking a young, unknown Cypriot to represent them.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 5th 2004, 1997, 1982
Hero: Lisa Andreas, 5th in 2004
Best Friends: Greece, UK, Malta
Music: Upbeat dance number with what appears to be a dancing bench. It's kinda catchy and I'm happy to say I've changed my view from Tuesday night
Best Odds: 50/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Without too many allies across Europe it's going to be tough to scrape the votes together, especially as the other dance tracks seem to be more popular with the public. The dance bench is worked into the performance well, but nothing else seems to happen.
9. France
Entry: Anggun - Echo (You and I)
Politics: It's early days yet for Francois Hollande, but the noises being made form Paris aren't likely to be received well by the rest of the EU. The other Eurozone countries might have to preach their austerity in terms of donating points to France. We don't have a semi-final result to gauge what that level of support is, but my guess is they wouldn't have qualified.
Last Year: 15th
Best Result: Winners 1977 1969 1962 1960 1958
Hero: Marie Myriam 1977 winner
Best Friends: Switzerland, Norway, Greece
Music: Awful, it offends my ears, repetitive tuneless crap.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Dire, it's a horrible song, they're knee deep in controversy, and to top it all off they're French.
10. Italy
Entry: Nina Zilli - L'amore è femmina
Politics: Where do you start, since the disposal of Berlusconi and the downgrading of their credit rating, the Italians haven't exactly been the most popular in Europe. At least Berlusconi wasn't strung up from a lamppost. They also tend to go in the huff with Eurovision and pull out every few years, so I suppose we should be thankful they're here this year.
Last Year: 2nd
Best Result: Winner 1990, 1964
Hero: Gigliola Cinquetti, 1964 winner
Best Friends: Portugal, Spain, Finland
Music: Winehouse-esque Italian/English mix. Not my cup of tea, but plenty will enjoy it.
Best Odds: 11/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Could go one better than last year, plenty of appeal in the song itself, but the Italians aren't really a part of any big voting bloc, so they may be counting on charity from across the Adriatic.
11. Estonia
Entry: Ott Lepland - Kuula
"Heart-throb ladies? Estonia defying their huge price with this effort.
Politics: Firm member of the Baltic bloc, but has a poor recent record. They will benefit from Latvia and Finland's absence and possibly scrape a few Scandinavian votes. They have a lot of public support for the competition which reversed the decision to pull out of the 2009 contest, and they don't make enemies in Europe.
Last Year: 24th
Best Result: Winner 2001
Hero: Tanel Padar, 2001 winner
Best Friends : Finland, Sweden, Ireland
Music: Another ballad from the second semi, well performed and simply presented, but Ott is the star of Estonian high school musical, and I'm reliably informed he's a cute guy, so that could sway a few female votes.
Best Odds: 100/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Given that this track struggles with the Estonian jury in the selection process, you'd think they'd be in trouble, but I'm not sure, it's a good song, Ott has a strong voice, and it will be popular with the voters across Europe, chance at a big price.
12. Norway
Entry: Tooji - Stay
"We'll see Norway on Saturday, but never
again after that. #Eurovision"
Politics: Enjoys the support of the Scandinavian bloc, but not universally popular because of their flirtation and teasing with EU membership. With the Brevik trial coming so close to Eurovision it's fresh in voters' minds and could play a part in who they decide to cast that vote for. Norway officially have the worst record of any participant at Eurovision, despite winning the contest 3 times, they have finished last on 10 occasions
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: Winner 2009, 1995, 1985
Hero: Anita Thallaug, nul points 1963
Best Friends: Sweden, Ireland, Iceland
Music: It's so forgettable, I just listened to it to jog my memory from Thursday, and I've forgotten it again. It's just bland rubbish.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Could be ten times that price and still not worth it. Use this opportunity for a tea break.
13. Azerbaijan
Entry: Sabina Babayeva - When the Music Dies
Politics: New boys on the scene, this is their fifth competition and their worst result is 8th. The novelty may be wearing off, and I expect their support to wane in the not too distant future
Last Year: Winner obviously
Best Result: Winner 2011
Hero: Eldar, our AZ-ER-BAI-JAN host.
Best Friends: Turkey, Ukraine, Russia
Music: It's almost immaterial what the music sounds like, they can't win back to back.
Best Odds: 66/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: None, the last back-to-back winner were Ireland when they knocked in a three-timer in the early 90s and as such, we're highly unlikely to see another back-to-back for a while if at all.
14. Romania
Entry: Mandinga - Zaleilah
"You will hear this in every club in Malia, Magaluf etc this summer. Get in Romania.
"He's got bagpipes, that gets my vote on Saturday.
Politics: New boys in the EU, but starting to get the same treatment in Western countries as Poles etc. Embraced capitalism and Eurovision, entering for the first time in 1994. Never missed the final since the introduction of the semi-finals in 2004
Last Year: 17th
Best Result: 3rd 2010, 2005
Hero: Paula Selling & Ovi, 3rd in 2010
Best Friends: Spain, Moldova, Israel
Music: Dance track, with five guys pretending to play instruments. The highlight of the performance is the moon-walking bagpipe player at the start. The singer also looks a bit like Tulisa, but with her mouth empty.
Best Odds: 25/1 (BetFred)
Prospect: I like the track and I feel it'll resonate across Europe, my only concern being the juries may not be too keen on it.
15. Denmark
Entry: Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better
"Instantly forgettable from Denmark.
Politics: Firmly ingrained in the Scandanavian bloc, hasn't made any big political moves in Europe which has helped them slip under the radar in this competition and they should be top 10.
Last Year: 5th
Best Result: Winner 2000, 1963
Hero: Jorgen and Niels Olsen, Fly on the Wings of Love 2000 winner
Best Friends: Norway, Iceland, Sweden
Music: Easy listening background music when you trying to concentrate on something far more important. does have a double bass mime and a xylophone solo though.
Best Odds: 40/1
Prospect: Most will have forgotten the track by the time it's finished, plus it's sandwiched in the running order between two far more popular tracks.
16. Greece
Entry: Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac
"Catchy tune Greece, 10/1 looks good about now. Not too racy, but certainly going for the lads vote.
Politics: Everybody in Europe hates these plate-smashing, debt-defaulting, neo-Nazi voting, man-boy love purveyors. Somehow they've managed to finish top ten every year since 2004. Except Cyprus, the entire Eurozone blames Greece for their fiscal difficulties
Last Year: 3rd
Best Result: Winners 2005
Hero: Helena Paparizou, winner in 2005, 3rd in 2001
Best Friends: Cyprus, Spain, UK
Music: It's catchy enough and the lads will enjoy the wind machines and the skimpy outfit.
Best Odds: 50/1 (BetFred)
Prospect: Minimal, they've got one of the worst time-slots possible, right next to Sweden.
17. Sweden
Entry: Loreen - Euphoria
"Overrated nonsense from Sweden. Get it to fuck.
"Probably the most chart ready entry though. Can see why money is coming for it.
Politics: Probably the leader of the Scandinavian bloc and has great past form in Eurovision for bring the most successful act to ever perform in the Contest
Last Year: 3rd
Best Result: Winner 1999, 1991, 1984, 1974
Hero: ABBA
Best Friends: Norway, Denmark, UK
Music: I'm not a big fan, the song itself is bearable, but it's the performance that annoys me, the hippie nonsense of pushing the energy around and her stupid crab shuffle during the first chorus.
Best Odds: 5/4 (Boylesports)
Prospects: If she wins, good luck, if not, good for the music industry and TV viewers everywhere.
18. Turkey
Entry: Can Bonomo - Love Me Back
"Looks like the Turks are still taking fashion advice from Assassins Creed revelations.
"Annoyingly catchy from Turkey, got stupid money on that.
Politics: Murky at best, outsiders in Europe and outsiders in Asia, probably not the best way to try and win a popularity contest across Europe. The influx of Western European tourists has helped broaden Turkey's appeal and the adoption of Turkish cuisine as a new 3am snack should grab a few UK votes
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: Winner 2003
Hero: Sertab Erener, winner.
Best Friends: Germany, France, Netherlands
Music: It's a jaunty little tune, reminiscent of the Inspector Gadget theme tune and it does have some spectacular choreography when the dancers construct a boat onstage.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Betfred)
Prospect: Despite the position in the line-up, I still think this track could grab some votes and finish towards the top of the table.
19. Spain
Entry: Pastora Soler - Quédate conmigo
Politics: Relatively safe, usually votes with Portugal and the other Latin countries, taken a bit of heat over it's economy but nowhere near
Last Year: 23rd
Best Result: Winner 1969, 1968
Hero: Julio Iglesias, 4th in 1970
Best Friends: Portugal, Greece, Switzerland
Music: Belting big song, could be a winner with the voters and the juries alike, but hasn't won in over 40 years.
Best Odds: 33/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Not brilliant, but could be due a win after all these years.
20. Germany
Entry:Roman Lob - Standing Still
Politics: Flexed it's muscles during the economic crisis, but starting to feel a bit of backlash from the new French administration and voters in Greece. Could be seen as rising above the rest of Europe in a big brother type role, the rest of Europe remembers how that went last time and will be keen to avoid a repeat.
Last Year: 10th
Best Result: Winner 2010, 1982
Hero: Lena, first winner since re-unification
Best Friends: Spain, Denmark, Portugal
Music: Middle of the road ballad, but Germany has had some success with songs in English
Best Odds: 40/1 (BetFred)
Prospects: Relatively poor, it's a decent song, but their challenge this year is hampered by their political position.
21. Malta
Entry: Kurt Calleja - This Is The Night
"Much better Malta. Quality effort. That's a finalist.
Politics: It's little Malta, everyone like Malta, but nobody really votes for them. Being an island in the middle of the Med does have it's disadvantages believe it or not. Solidarity with the UK due to being a former member of the British Empire both sides actions regarding HMS Illustrious during the Second World War
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 2nd 2005, 2002
Hero: Chiara, 2nd in 2005 and 3rd in 1998
Best Friends:Ireland, Croatia, Turkey
Music: Great little tune, with the exception of the female backing singer who's English is pretty poor along with her command of her pitch, but clearly the best dance moves of the field, and the shuffle will be going into my repertoire
Best Odds: 150/1 (bwin)
Prospects: Limited, doesn't have the political capital to cash in on this great spot in the running order. Should be a vote-winner, but not sure how Europe will like it.
22. FYR Macedonia
Entry: Kaliopi - Crno i belo
"Decent effort from Macedonia. Brought along their own Bonnie Tyler this year.
Politics: Balkan through and through and with less Balkan states than expected in the final, they could get a lot more votes than they should, especially sitting so late in the line-up.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 12th 2006
Hero: Vlado Javenski, debut performer in 1998
Best Friends: Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia
Music: Gravelly, screeching ballad. Shouldn't be that popular but seems to have some appeal.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Stan James)
Prospects: Slim, a lot of voters will be put off by the vocal performance, and the juries won't be too impressed either.
23. Ireland
Entry: Jedward - Waterline
"A walking advert for abortion. Give my "my lovely horse" anyday.
"Those two fuckers could drown in a shower.
"Jedward are too stupid to live.
Politics: Ireland's liability across Europe seems to have dampened and their back to their stereotypical slow-thinking jovial drinking selves in European eyes. Probably brought the most exposed performers to the show, and their broad appeal should be a help to Irish chances
Last Year: 8th
Best Result: Winners 1996, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1987, 1980, 1970
Hero: Father Ted Crilly and Father Dougal McGuire
Best Friends: UK, Sweden, Switzerland
Music: Really catchy bubblegum pop track, upbeat, strong lyrics and a standout performance from the semi-final with the water fountain
Best Odds: 33/1 (SportingBet)
Prospects: I think it's great track and it will connect with the viewers across Europe it's in a perfect spot in the order and the lads just need to refrain from going completely over the top in their performance and they could have a winner on their hands
24. Serbia
Entry: Zeljko Joksimovic - Nije Ljubav Stvar
"Not that impressive from Serbia. Wouldn't be a surprise if they don't make it.
Politics: One of the Balkan states left in the competition, so there are plenty of votes available, certainly improved their standing in Europe in the last 5 years, and if they could just stop producing war criminals, they'd be doing much better than they have been.
Last Year: 14th
Best Result: Winner 2007
Hero: Marija Šerifović, winner in 2007, the first song in Serbian to win.
Best Friends: Bosnia, Slovenia, Switzerland
Music: Dreadful ballad, it appears to be all the Serbians like to listen too.
Best Odds: 10/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: I just don't see the appeal of the song, and I can't understand how it can be so short in the market. I certainly won't be voting for it.
25. Ukraine
Entry: Gaintana - Be My Guest
Politics: Dodgy, although they are getting ready to co-host the European championships, Yulia Tymoshenko still resides in prison and she has plenty of friends in Europe, can't seem them overcoming that, twinned with the furore over prices of hotels for travelling football fans.
Last Year: 4th
Best Result: Winner 2004
Hero: Ruslana, and her wild dances
Best Friends: Poland, Russia, Belarus
Music: It's a dance track straight out of 1992
Best Odds: 40/1 (Betfred)
Prospects: Ukraine has a great record in Eurovision, but I'm inclined to oppose them due to their sticky political situation and the fact I don't like their track.
26. Moldova
Entry: Pasha Parfeny - Lautar
"Moldovan Chico with Moldovan Saturdays. I used to enjoy Moldova's entry, but this is tame by their standards.
Politics: A newcomer to the event, they vote with the Balkans and the Black Sea blocs, they have consistently qualified from the semi-finals and they do usually pick out a memorable performer for our entertainment like Zdob si Zdub. They haven't been that successful in the competition itself, but they do have a tremendous online support.
Last Year: 12th
Best Result: 6th 2005
Hero: Sergey Stepanov EPIC SAX GUY
Best Friends: Romania, Portugal, Ukraine
Music: It's cheesy Eurovision finest. Parts of the song are in English, yet the quality of English is laughable.
Best Odds: 100/1 (BetFred)
Prospects: None whatsoever
ADVICE
Estonia 0.5pt EW @ 100/1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.5pt EW @ 150/1
Cyprus 0.5pt EW @ 50/1
Turkey 0.5pt EW @ 80/1
Ireland 0.5pt EW @ 33/1
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Collation of Guest Blog Spots
Running Total : +90.32 pts
Jockey Club Stakes
Newmarket, May 5th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/05/jockey-club-stakes-preview-for.html
Results : +28pts, happy with that, carry on
Punchestown Champion Hurdle
Punchestown, April 27th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/punchestown-champion-hurdle-preview.html
Results : +12.35pts, should've been braver.
Maghull Novices' Chase
Aintree, April 14th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/maghull-novices-chase.html
Rsults : +23.6pts, this was an easy one.
Melling Chase
Aintree, April 13th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/melling-chase-preview.html
Results : -10pts, stinker, move on.
Dubai Golden Shaheen
Meydan, March 31tst
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/golden-shaheen-preview.html
Results : +45pts, bazinga, race run exactly as suspected, favourite split up my exactas otherwise would've been huge.
Grand Annual Chase
Cheltenham, March 16th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/johnny-henderson-grand-annual-chase.html
Results : -8.37pts, not great, but made some positive comments on the winner.
Cross Country Chase
Cheltenham, March 13th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/cross-country-preview.html
Results: Got the right 2nd place, but nothing else. No pointed staking plan.
Jockey Club Stakes
Newmarket, May 5th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/05/jockey-club-stakes-preview-for.html
Results : +28pts, happy with that, carry on
Punchestown Champion Hurdle
Punchestown, April 27th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/punchestown-champion-hurdle-preview.html
Results : +12.35pts, should've been braver.
Maghull Novices' Chase
Aintree, April 14th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/maghull-novices-chase.html
Rsults : +23.6pts, this was an easy one.
Melling Chase
Aintree, April 13th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/melling-chase-preview.html
Results : -10pts, stinker, move on.
Dubai Golden Shaheen
Meydan, March 31tst
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/golden-shaheen-preview.html
Results : +45pts, bazinga, race run exactly as suspected, favourite split up my exactas otherwise would've been huge.
Grand Annual Chase
Cheltenham, March 16th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/johnny-henderson-grand-annual-chase.html
Results : -8.37pts, not great, but made some positive comments on the winner.
Cross Country Chase
Cheltenham, March 13th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/cross-country-preview.html
Results: Got the right 2nd place, but nothing else. No pointed staking plan.
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
Eastern Conference Preview
NHL Playoffs Preview 2012
The most exciting part of the year has arrived, the quest for Lord Stanley's Cup. Sixteen teams remain in the hunt including the defending champion Boston Bruins. Let's have a closer look at this year's opening round match-ups and see if we can find a bit of value to have a punt, or something silly to bet with your mates. We'll start in the East.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 New York Rangers (H: 27-12-2, A: 24-12-5, 109pts)
versus
#8 Ottawa Senators (H: 20-17-4, A: 21-14-6, 92pts)
The Rangers started the season strong and maintained that pace throughout the season, playing solid hockey and not really being troubled too much. The team is built on solid defense and physicality in front of some excellent goaltending. Lundqvist probably will and definitely should win the Vezina Trophy and on top of a good well spread offense, this year the Rangers added Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik who provided 142 points between them. The penalty kill is solid and ranks 4th amongst teams in the playoffs, but their power play is 14th of those teams and needs some improvement for the Rangers to make it all the way.
Key Man : Ryan Callahan, captain fantastic leads by example and will drive this team forward.
Ottawa rely heavily on their All-Star "selections" (see previous blog about that) in Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek and Daniel Alfredsson. They slumped into the playoffs after dropping back from Boston in the Northeastern division. They should've been pushing for the 6th seed, but only made the 8th spot because the Sabres were so dire in the last month of the season. The Sens have solid, if not spectacular goaltending and their special teams units rank middle of the pack. If they're going to have any chance, their Power Play needs to be firing on all cylinders and they'll need to improve their PK drastically.
Key Man : Eric Karlsson, only 21 but a two-time All Star and 59 assists this season could help offensive output.
FIRST GAME: Thursday 7pm ET, NHL Network
PREDICTION: Nothing special, Rangers win in five games. (10/3 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: NYR-NYR-NYR-OTT-NYR
EXOTIC BET: New York -6.5 goals over Ottawa
#2 Boston Bruins (H: 24-24-3, A: 25-15-1, 102pts)
versus
#7 Washington Capitals (H: 26-11-4, A: 16-21-4, 92pts)
The defending champions got off to a slow start, mainly because of their long season (25 playoff games) and took a while to get going. Through November and December however, they were the best team in hockey, when we got to January they started slumping again. They enter the playoffs with a bit of momentum going 9-2-1 in their last 12. Injuries to key players like Nathan Horton, Rich Peverley and Tuukka Rask meant that lines were changed frequently and call ups from the minors were fairly regular. As a result Boston probably have the most balanced attack in the NHL, they were the only team with 6 different 20 goal scorers and they also have the best goal differential in the league. They had the top 5 players in the plus/minus category, and this year's presumptive Selke Trophy winner Patrice Bergeron finished 2nd in face-off percentage. All that said, the Caps have owned them 3-1 this season, so it'll be up to the Bruins to send a message early that the playoffs are their time of year and send Washington home early.
Key Man: Tim Thomas, reigning Conn Smythe and Vezina winner is nearly 38 and with Rask's injury he's played a lot more games than anybody wanted. If he shows the same form as last season, Boston could be the first back-to-back winner since Detroit.
The Caps are an enigma, after Bruce Boudreau lead them to a couple of #1 seeds and a president's trophy, the ownership in Washington decided they'd rather have post-season than regular season success, showed him the door and brought in Dale Hunter. The Caps are still a team that relies far too heavily on Alex Ovechkin and their goalkeeping tandem doesn't seem to be working well either. They have a bit of momentum coming into the playoffs and nearly stole the #3 seed from the Panthers, so that will carry them forward into this series and make things a bit more competitive with Boston.
Key Man: Alexander Ovechkin, the Caps play as Ovechkin plays. No Ovi, no hope.
FIRST GAME: Thursday 7.30pm ET, NBC
PREDICTION: Back and forth series but more frustration for Caps fans, Boston win in seven games (7/2 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: BOS-WSH-WSH-BOS-BOS-WSH-BOS
EXOTIC BET: Series total goals over 36.5
#3 Florida Panthers (H: 21-9-11, A: 17-17-7, 94pts)
versus
#6 New Jersey Devils (H: 24-13-4, A: 24-15-2, 102 pts)
Probably the least exciting match-up of the first round for me. The Panthers make their first postseason appearance since the lock-out and I don't think they'll last long. They added a few decent free agents and made some good trades before the season, the best of those being Tomas Fleischmann who led them in points and goals. Goaltending continues to be and issue and they are one of only two postseason teams with a negative goal difference. Their weak penalty kill could expose them as the Devils have the best PP of the teams left. Florida's strong home record will be the only thing keeping this season alive.
Key Man: Tomas Fleischmann, the driving force in the offense, he has to have a big series to give the Panthers hope.
The Devils suffered from being in the strongest division in the NHL, they finished 4th in the Atlantic Division with 102 points. Ilya Kovalchuk's acquisition finally seems to be paying dividends and strong contributions from Zach Parise and Patrik Elias have paced the team throughout the season. Brodeur looks to be having his last hurrah in net and this looks like one of his last chances to win another Cup. The Devils strong and quick play should be enough to set them up for a second round date with the Rangers and it seems a question of when rather than if they beat Florida
FIRST GAME: Friday 7pm ET, NHL Network
PREDICTION: The Devils have too much and a couple of home wins for Florida extends the series, New Jersey win in six games (3/1 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: FLA-NJ-NJ-NJ-FLA-NJ
EXOTIC BET: Total goals in series under 30.5
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins (H: 29-10-2, A: 22-15-4, 108 pts)
versus
#5 Philadelphia Flyers (H: 22-13-6, A: 25-13-3, 103pts)
The series everyone wants to see, Crosby is back for the Penguins and Malkin is this season's Hart Trophy winner, Evgeni led the league in points with 109 and was second in goals with 50 only behind Steven Stamkos who probably playing golf right now. Stellar goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury and real toughness and great coaching from Dan Bylsma has led this team through most of the season without their captain and the NHL's biggest star in Crosby. They have a good PP at 19.7%, an excellent PK at 87.8% and the league's second best goal differential at +61, so you'd expect this series to be tight, well it might be for the first couple of games, but once the cross-state emotion kicks in there will be fights, goals and everything else you'd want in a series.
Key Man: Sidney Crosby, the captain has been missing most of the season through injury but his return came at the right team and he could lead this team all the way to the Finals.
The Flyers recovered from their tough festive period and losing in the Winter Classic to the Rangers, and with Claude Giroux concussion-free added to the career best figures from Scott Hartnell and Wayne Simmonds, Philly have recover to finish the season well. They still struggle for consistency in the goaltending department and have missed Chris Pronger and his abnormally shaped head massively this season. Big free agent signing Ilya Bryzgalov had a dip in confidence, co-incidentally shortly after his "Universe" piece on Road to the Winter Classic, and Sergei Bobrovsky hasn't been that great deputising. For a team that changes goaltenders like toothbrushes, Bryzgalov has been better than most in recent memory, and it's upon that foundation the Flyers' hopes will rest. There will be plenty goals in this series so it's going to come down to Bryzgalov to save some shots that he shouldn't and hold everything he should.
Key Man: Ilya Bryzgalov: In a town where sports fans boo Santa, it won't take much to chase the Russian from the net, but if he's solid, Philly have a chance
FIRST GAME: Wednesday 7.30pm ET, NHL Network
PREDICTION: A war of attrition shall ensue and the Pens will just have enough to sneak it, Pittsburgh win in seven games (7/2 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: PHI-PIT-PIT-PIT-PHI-PHI-PIT
EXOTIC BET: Total penalty minutes in the series over 140.5
PART 2 previewing the WESTERN CONFERENCE, will be put up tonight, at Primetime Pacific Time.
The most exciting part of the year has arrived, the quest for Lord Stanley's Cup. Sixteen teams remain in the hunt including the defending champion Boston Bruins. Let's have a closer look at this year's opening round match-ups and see if we can find a bit of value to have a punt, or something silly to bet with your mates. We'll start in the East.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 New York Rangers (H: 27-12-2, A: 24-12-5, 109pts)
versus
#8 Ottawa Senators (H: 20-17-4, A: 21-14-6, 92pts)
The Rangers started the season strong and maintained that pace throughout the season, playing solid hockey and not really being troubled too much. The team is built on solid defense and physicality in front of some excellent goaltending. Lundqvist probably will and definitely should win the Vezina Trophy and on top of a good well spread offense, this year the Rangers added Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik who provided 142 points between them. The penalty kill is solid and ranks 4th amongst teams in the playoffs, but their power play is 14th of those teams and needs some improvement for the Rangers to make it all the way.
Key Man : Ryan Callahan, captain fantastic leads by example and will drive this team forward.
Ottawa rely heavily on their All-Star "selections" (see previous blog about that) in Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek and Daniel Alfredsson. They slumped into the playoffs after dropping back from Boston in the Northeastern division. They should've been pushing for the 6th seed, but only made the 8th spot because the Sabres were so dire in the last month of the season. The Sens have solid, if not spectacular goaltending and their special teams units rank middle of the pack. If they're going to have any chance, their Power Play needs to be firing on all cylinders and they'll need to improve their PK drastically.
Key Man : Eric Karlsson, only 21 but a two-time All Star and 59 assists this season could help offensive output.
FIRST GAME: Thursday 7pm ET, NHL Network
PREDICTION: Nothing special, Rangers win in five games. (10/3 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: NYR-NYR-NYR-OTT-NYR
EXOTIC BET: New York -6.5 goals over Ottawa
#2 Boston Bruins (H: 24-24-3, A: 25-15-1, 102pts)
versus
#7 Washington Capitals (H: 26-11-4, A: 16-21-4, 92pts)
The defending champions got off to a slow start, mainly because of their long season (25 playoff games) and took a while to get going. Through November and December however, they were the best team in hockey, when we got to January they started slumping again. They enter the playoffs with a bit of momentum going 9-2-1 in their last 12. Injuries to key players like Nathan Horton, Rich Peverley and Tuukka Rask meant that lines were changed frequently and call ups from the minors were fairly regular. As a result Boston probably have the most balanced attack in the NHL, they were the only team with 6 different 20 goal scorers and they also have the best goal differential in the league. They had the top 5 players in the plus/minus category, and this year's presumptive Selke Trophy winner Patrice Bergeron finished 2nd in face-off percentage. All that said, the Caps have owned them 3-1 this season, so it'll be up to the Bruins to send a message early that the playoffs are their time of year and send Washington home early.
Key Man: Tim Thomas, reigning Conn Smythe and Vezina winner is nearly 38 and with Rask's injury he's played a lot more games than anybody wanted. If he shows the same form as last season, Boston could be the first back-to-back winner since Detroit.
The Caps are an enigma, after Bruce Boudreau lead them to a couple of #1 seeds and a president's trophy, the ownership in Washington decided they'd rather have post-season than regular season success, showed him the door and brought in Dale Hunter. The Caps are still a team that relies far too heavily on Alex Ovechkin and their goalkeeping tandem doesn't seem to be working well either. They have a bit of momentum coming into the playoffs and nearly stole the #3 seed from the Panthers, so that will carry them forward into this series and make things a bit more competitive with Boston.
Key Man: Alexander Ovechkin, the Caps play as Ovechkin plays. No Ovi, no hope.
FIRST GAME: Thursday 7.30pm ET, NBC
PREDICTION: Back and forth series but more frustration for Caps fans, Boston win in seven games (7/2 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: BOS-WSH-WSH-BOS-BOS-WSH-BOS
EXOTIC BET: Series total goals over 36.5
#3 Florida Panthers (H: 21-9-11, A: 17-17-7, 94pts)
versus
#6 New Jersey Devils (H: 24-13-4, A: 24-15-2, 102 pts)
Probably the least exciting match-up of the first round for me. The Panthers make their first postseason appearance since the lock-out and I don't think they'll last long. They added a few decent free agents and made some good trades before the season, the best of those being Tomas Fleischmann who led them in points and goals. Goaltending continues to be and issue and they are one of only two postseason teams with a negative goal difference. Their weak penalty kill could expose them as the Devils have the best PP of the teams left. Florida's strong home record will be the only thing keeping this season alive.
Key Man: Tomas Fleischmann, the driving force in the offense, he has to have a big series to give the Panthers hope.
The Devils suffered from being in the strongest division in the NHL, they finished 4th in the Atlantic Division with 102 points. Ilya Kovalchuk's acquisition finally seems to be paying dividends and strong contributions from Zach Parise and Patrik Elias have paced the team throughout the season. Brodeur looks to be having his last hurrah in net and this looks like one of his last chances to win another Cup. The Devils strong and quick play should be enough to set them up for a second round date with the Rangers and it seems a question of when rather than if they beat Florida
FIRST GAME: Friday 7pm ET, NHL Network
PREDICTION: The Devils have too much and a couple of home wins for Florida extends the series, New Jersey win in six games (3/1 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: FLA-NJ-NJ-NJ-FLA-NJ
EXOTIC BET: Total goals in series under 30.5
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins (H: 29-10-2, A: 22-15-4, 108 pts)
versus
#5 Philadelphia Flyers (H: 22-13-6, A: 25-13-3, 103pts)
The series everyone wants to see, Crosby is back for the Penguins and Malkin is this season's Hart Trophy winner, Evgeni led the league in points with 109 and was second in goals with 50 only behind Steven Stamkos who probably playing golf right now. Stellar goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury and real toughness and great coaching from Dan Bylsma has led this team through most of the season without their captain and the NHL's biggest star in Crosby. They have a good PP at 19.7%, an excellent PK at 87.8% and the league's second best goal differential at +61, so you'd expect this series to be tight, well it might be for the first couple of games, but once the cross-state emotion kicks in there will be fights, goals and everything else you'd want in a series.
Key Man: Sidney Crosby, the captain has been missing most of the season through injury but his return came at the right team and he could lead this team all the way to the Finals.
The Flyers recovered from their tough festive period and losing in the Winter Classic to the Rangers, and with Claude Giroux concussion-free added to the career best figures from Scott Hartnell and Wayne Simmonds, Philly have recover to finish the season well. They still struggle for consistency in the goaltending department and have missed Chris Pronger and his abnormally shaped head massively this season. Big free agent signing Ilya Bryzgalov had a dip in confidence, co-incidentally shortly after his "Universe" piece on Road to the Winter Classic, and Sergei Bobrovsky hasn't been that great deputising. For a team that changes goaltenders like toothbrushes, Bryzgalov has been better than most in recent memory, and it's upon that foundation the Flyers' hopes will rest. There will be plenty goals in this series so it's going to come down to Bryzgalov to save some shots that he shouldn't and hold everything he should.
Key Man: Ilya Bryzgalov: In a town where sports fans boo Santa, it won't take much to chase the Russian from the net, but if he's solid, Philly have a chance
FIRST GAME: Wednesday 7.30pm ET, NHL Network
PREDICTION: A war of attrition shall ensue and the Pens will just have enough to sneak it, Pittsburgh win in seven games (7/2 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: PHI-PIT-PIT-PIT-PHI-PHI-PIT
EXOTIC BET: Total penalty minutes in the series over 140.5
PART 2 previewing the WESTERN CONFERENCE, will be put up tonight, at Primetime Pacific Time.
Friday, 13 January 2012
NHL All-Star Game 2012
This week the NHL filled out the rosters for the 2012 Tim Hortons All-Star game in Ottawa. 6 "starters" were chosen by the public and it's no surprise that Ottawa fans crashed the vote to ensure they league the league with 4 representatives, they are Milan Michalek, Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson and Erik Karlsson. The other 2 players voted in by the public are Dion Phaneuf of the Maple Leafs (big market that Toronto is) and reigning Vezina and Conn Smythe trophy winner Tim Thomas of the Bruins. In selecting the other 36 the NHL obviously was looking to balance the rosters between all 30 teams, but that begs the question, why? If the idea of an all-star game is to pick players from almost every team to make sure everyone is represented, they may as well go back to pee wee hockey and make sure everybody has fun instead of trying to create the spectacle fans lust for by naming the best 36 players not selected by the public.
As I was already aware of the 6 "starters" (from now on I'll refer to them as tokens, as only Thomas deserves to be there as a first choice) I decided to try and fill out the rest of the rosters myself, and continuing with the NHL's fantasy draft system, an idea which I am a big fan of if only to see the look on Phil Kessel's face as he was picked last in 2011 which you can view here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbLqceZLfUk
As I had no idea who would be picked as teams captains or alternate captains, I decided that the honour should go to the hometown captain Daniel Alfredsson and the league's poster boy (or girl depending on your opinion of last June's Stanley Cup finals) Henrik Sedin. From this point I filled out my rosters and then grabbed a friend who knew nothing about hockey and we made our schoolyard picks.
Team Alfredsson
Forwards
Michalek OTT
Spezza OTT
Alfredsson OTT
Nash CBJ
Bergeron BOS
Perry ANA
Benn DAL
Malkin PIT
Seguin BOS
Lupul TOR
Couture SJ
Hossa CHI
Defensemen
Timonen PHI
Doan PHX
Chara BOS
Byfuglien WIN
Karlsson OTT
Weber NSH
Goalies
Thomas BOS
Anderson OTT
Quick LA
Team Henrik
Forwards
D Sedin VAN
H Sedin VAN
Zetterberg DET
Datsyuk DET
Stamkos TB
Kessel TOR
Gaborik NYR
Toews CHI
Kane CHI
Elias NJ
Giroux PHI
Pominville BUF
Defensemen
Phaneuf TOR
Cambell FLA
Keith CHI
Boyle SJ
Lidstrom DET
Del Zotto NYR
Goalies
Lundqvist NYR
Howard DET
Elliott STL
A quick head count will tell you I got 31/42 including the tokens, but this masks my true ire on the subject. Notable omissions include Patrice Bergeron, Henrik Zetterberg, Michael Del Zotto and Jonathan Quick.
The thing that really grates me is Bergeron's omission, I mean I get that the NHL doesn't really have the need for a top defensive forward in the All-Star game however they have included 3 time Selke winner Pavel Datsyuk and perennial front runner Jonathan Toews. Bergeron was second in the playoffs last season in plus/minus, second in assists, 60% in faceoffs, scored 2 shorties and this season he's even better. He's 3rd in faceoff percentage with 57.6% behind David Steckel and Jonathan Toews, third in plus/minus, he leads the Bruins in assists and is arguably the biggest part of the Bruins leading the Northeast.
Even although Zetterberg is playing below his own lofty standards this season, he's exactly the type of player you'd want in this contest as shown by last week's shootout winner against Phoenix:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYKy9TPj7b4
Del Zotto has been a standout in the Rangers resurgence and their current lead of the Eastern Conference, sure the Rangers have a defensemen in the game, but why not have 2? He's the only non-Bruin in the top 5 plus/minus and he's chipped in with 18 assists and 84 hits, good for top 25 in the league for defensemen.
Jonathan Quick is top 5 in the league in save percentage and goals against average, 3 of the 4 ahead of him in those categories have been named as All-Stars, the other is Tuukka Rask. I suppose he lost out to Carey Price because we can't have 0 Habs in the All-Star game, no matter how rank they've been this season.
All is not lost however as I took the list of players who did make the game and produced another fantasy draft with my friend, the highlight of which is a line of the Sedin sisters and Corey Perry up against Datsyuk, Toews and Seguin. We can only hope the real All-Stars can come up with something similar, or at least leave Kessel til last again this year.
@Materialista27
As I was already aware of the 6 "starters" (from now on I'll refer to them as tokens, as only Thomas deserves to be there as a first choice) I decided to try and fill out the rest of the rosters myself, and continuing with the NHL's fantasy draft system, an idea which I am a big fan of if only to see the look on Phil Kessel's face as he was picked last in 2011 which you can view here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbLqceZLfUk
As I had no idea who would be picked as teams captains or alternate captains, I decided that the honour should go to the hometown captain Daniel Alfredsson and the league's poster boy (or girl depending on your opinion of last June's Stanley Cup finals) Henrik Sedin. From this point I filled out my rosters and then grabbed a friend who knew nothing about hockey and we made our schoolyard picks.
Team Alfredsson
Forwards
Michalek OTT
Spezza OTT
Alfredsson OTT
Nash CBJ
Bergeron BOS
Perry ANA
Benn DAL
Malkin PIT
Seguin BOS
Lupul TOR
Couture SJ
Hossa CHI
Defensemen
Timonen PHI
Doan PHX
Chara BOS
Byfuglien WIN
Karlsson OTT
Weber NSH
Goalies
Thomas BOS
Anderson OTT
Quick LA
Team Henrik
Forwards
D Sedin VAN
H Sedin VAN
Zetterberg DET
Datsyuk DET
Stamkos TB
Kessel TOR
Gaborik NYR
Toews CHI
Kane CHI
Elias NJ
Giroux PHI
Pominville BUF
Defensemen
Phaneuf TOR
Cambell FLA
Keith CHI
Boyle SJ
Lidstrom DET
Del Zotto NYR
Goalies
Lundqvist NYR
Howard DET
Elliott STL
A quick head count will tell you I got 31/42 including the tokens, but this masks my true ire on the subject. Notable omissions include Patrice Bergeron, Henrik Zetterberg, Michael Del Zotto and Jonathan Quick.
The thing that really grates me is Bergeron's omission, I mean I get that the NHL doesn't really have the need for a top defensive forward in the All-Star game however they have included 3 time Selke winner Pavel Datsyuk and perennial front runner Jonathan Toews. Bergeron was second in the playoffs last season in plus/minus, second in assists, 60% in faceoffs, scored 2 shorties and this season he's even better. He's 3rd in faceoff percentage with 57.6% behind David Steckel and Jonathan Toews, third in plus/minus, he leads the Bruins in assists and is arguably the biggest part of the Bruins leading the Northeast.
Even although Zetterberg is playing below his own lofty standards this season, he's exactly the type of player you'd want in this contest as shown by last week's shootout winner against Phoenix:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYKy9TPj7b4
Del Zotto has been a standout in the Rangers resurgence and their current lead of the Eastern Conference, sure the Rangers have a defensemen in the game, but why not have 2? He's the only non-Bruin in the top 5 plus/minus and he's chipped in with 18 assists and 84 hits, good for top 25 in the league for defensemen.
Jonathan Quick is top 5 in the league in save percentage and goals against average, 3 of the 4 ahead of him in those categories have been named as All-Stars, the other is Tuukka Rask. I suppose he lost out to Carey Price because we can't have 0 Habs in the All-Star game, no matter how rank they've been this season.
All is not lost however as I took the list of players who did make the game and produced another fantasy draft with my friend, the highlight of which is a line of the Sedin sisters and Corey Perry up against Datsyuk, Toews and Seguin. We can only hope the real All-Stars can come up with something similar, or at least leave Kessel til last again this year.
@Materialista27
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